WASHINGTON, D.C. / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. is on track to set a new record for natural gas production, with expectations to average 122.5 billion cubic feet daily in 2026. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the previous annual high was 118.5 Bcf/d in 2025. During the first half of 2026, production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, which is a 4%, or 4.6 Bcf/d, increase compared to the same period last year.
Growth has primarily been driven by output from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, along with the Haynesville region spanning Louisiana and Texas. This year, Permian natural gas production is expected to reach an average of 29.2 Bcf/d, representing a 6% rise from 2025. Much of this supply is associated gas produced alongside crude oil. West Texas Intermediate crude prices averaged $84 a barrel through July, compared to $65 during 2025.
The increase in Permian gas output correlates with the rising gas-to-oil ratio in the region, which indicates the volume of natural gas produced relative to crude oil. In the first half of the year, Haynesville production grew by 1.1 Bcf/d, or 7%, compared to the previous year. The full-year forecast for Haynesville indicates a 9% increase, roughly 1.3 Bcf/d more.
Permian and Haynesville spearhead production increases
Natural gas prices continue to play a vital role in shaping the production outlook, especially for operators in Haynesville who focus heavily on gas. The EIA predicts the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026, with a third-quarter forecast of $2.87 per MMBtu. Elevated inventories are also supported by robust production and decreased LNG feedgas demand, with end-October storage projected at a record 3,985 billion cubic feet.
This storage forecast exceeds the five-year average by 5% and is 19 Bcf higher than the previous monthly estimate. U.S. dry natural gas production is expected to average 111.19 Bcf/d in 2026, excluding some volumes counted within marketed production. In 2027, dry gas output is forecast at 116.04 Bcf/d, while total U.S. natural gas consumption is projected to reach 92.03 Bcf/d this year.
Exports climb as storage levels stay high
The forecast for U.S. liquefied natural gas exports predicts an average of 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026, an increase from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025. It is expected to reach 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027. Pipeline exports are also anticipated to rise slightly to an average of 9.6 Bcf/d this year, up from 9.5 Bcf/d in 2025. During the third quarter, LNG exports are projected at 16.5 Bcf/d, with maintenance reducing feedgas demand at some Gulf Coast facilities.
From 2009 through 2024, the U.S. held the position as the world’s largest natural gas producer, based on available global data. The August outlook reaffirms this dominance with an expected record for annual production in 2026. The latest projections highlight increased output from the country’s two key growth regions, with expanding Permian and Haynesville supplies pushing U.S. marketed natural gas production beyond the 2025 record.