NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest point since April 2014 in September, marking a continued three-month decrease in household sentiment. The Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9. The previous reading for August was revised downward to 88.6. The survey conducted in September collected responses from September 1 through September 23. During this period, both current condition assessments and future expectations over the next six months deteriorated.
The Present Situation Index decreased by 7.9 points, reaching 109.3, indicating a more pessimistic view of business and labor conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index dropped 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decline. This indicator gauges opinions on income, business prospects, and employment over the upcoming six months. The September decrease followed similar drops in July and August, and together these measures caused the overall confidence index to fall further below earlier this year’s levels.
The survey by The Conference Board revealed a noticeable shift in perceptions of current economic conditions. About 18.5% of consumers described business conditions as good, down from 18.8% in August. Conversely, those rating conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Views on the labor market also softened, with 23.6% of respondents saying jobs were plentiful—down from 24.5%—and 21.9% indicating jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations increase amid sustained fuel prices
In September, consumers projected higher inflation rates. The average 12-month inflation expectation rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, with the median increasing to 5.1%. Federal data also showed that consumer prices rose 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that gasoline prices increased by 3.9% during August. AAA reported a national average of about $4.46 a gallon for regular gasoline on September 29.
Consumer spending plans also showed restraint across various categories. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase cars and homes both declined slightly in September. Anticipated expenditure on services such as hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks also fell again. However, vacation plans remained strong, with 42.6% of consumers planning trips within the next six months—an increase of 0.5 percentage points from August, mainly driven by domestic travel.
Expectations for jobs and income outlooks weaken
Optimism about business conditions, employment, and income prospects also diminished. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Meanwhile, 25.4% expected conditions to worsen, up from 23.3%. Regarding employment, 14.0% expected more jobs to become available, whereas 28.4% foresaw fewer opportunities. Income expectations similarly softened, with 17.9% expecting gains and 15.4% predicting declines over the next six months.
The survey further indicated increasing pressure on household finances. Net views of current family financial situations turned negative for only the second time in four years. Confidence levels declined across all age groups and nearly all income brackets based on a six-month moving average. Toluna conducted the online monthly survey for The Conference Board, with September’s preliminary results closing on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index update is scheduled for October 27.